Here's it is. tRump 2.0 captured in one photo: tariffs, Gatsby, East Wing, ICE, SNAP, ....

Okay, you did not provide it so I had to look it up

Hannah Arendt, who self-deported from Nazi Germany

Evading

No apology needed. You want some mental health? FIND some pleasures. And beware of self-fulfilling prophecies.

You are where you are. No need to apologize for that.

But if you want health, you need to drop the "my presence signaled the end of something". (Easier said than done, but needs to be done.) And ditch the "failed" narrative. (Also easier said than done.) Getting here in the here and now is not failure. You have faced many headwinds and are not giving yourself sufficient credit.

I do not for a minute believe pleasure "has not really happened in the last decade for sure." You know what gives you little pleasures. A taste. Maybe a cat video. A dandelion seed in the wind. A little trill of notes. I don't know, but you do know. Make it a priority to make time to make and take a little pleasure. Don't worry about trying to remember past pleasures. You know your little pleasures in the here and now.

The negative thoughts? Don't fight them. Say "Hello. We've met before." and then get back to the task at hand without dwelling on them. Dropping the negative narratives will only happen by gently dropping dropping them each time they arise without rancour and anger just because one arose. Simply drop them each time without fighting and without complaining or worrying that they came back. They will come back millions of times. You can drop them millions of times. The more times you fight them the more times they come back. The more times you drop them them less they will come back.

I bet you do not meditate. Meditation is emptying the mind. Watch your breathing for ten minutes. Just sit and watch without judging it or analyzing it. That helps you do activities big and small without the inner critic. Yes, evaluation is important, but not second by second. Old dogs can't learn new tricks. Learn this new trick. It's not hard but it takes repetition. Do not give up. You will fail at it until you succeed, but you will succeed if you keep doing it. Ten minutes a day until you get better at it. Don't worry about failing. It is necessary for success. Success is not total elimination of the inner critic. Success is letting go of it every time it wants to seize control. I don't meditate because I know how (last time I did was over a year ago and was three hours). I cultivate a meditative state of mind while doing dishes and shopping and a myriad of other activities. Just do the thing that needs doing without self criticism, without self evaluation, without negativity. Just do everything one little step at a time. Get the dishwater to something approximating the right temperature without criticizing the temperature.

Every time you fail at stopping the self criticism, at stopping the woe is me narrative, don't worry. Just pick up the task at hand and continue doing it. Practice does not make perfect but it makes better.

You are stronger than you realize.

"all fed by crypto" is nonsense. Similarity w 1979 is Supply Shock fr deportations & no-hire-no-fire & tariffs.

The "Delusional Wealth" is that the AI bubble (premature over-promise which won't be achieved until the next wave) is propping up the economy. Take data center frenzy away and most of the country would be in recession and people would see the stagflation. The 1970s effect of supply shock of 73 and 79 oil embargos was stagflation. The 2025 supply shock is the drying up of the labour market. Companies are reluctant to fire because of uncertainty and they are reluctant to hire for the same reason. There is less labour on the low end (farm workers, construction labour supply down due to deportation frenzy) and fewer jobs in the middle and high end due to tariff tax impact and TACO uncertainty combined with unrealistic (this time around, not next) expectations for AI productivity. The crypto business is just chasing around new tokens which have little value other than some anonymity.

It would not surprise me if the market will continue up after a pullback. But a bear is coming and could easily come sooner than April. On the other hand I've been saying that since February.

Live Kilauea oozing. Might be fountains tomorrow

(thanks to catbyte for alerting me to this video feed a month ago)

The cycle is about 30+ days. Last cycle had the highest lava fountains ever at Kilauea. What this one will do is unknown, but everything is in place for fountaining in a day or two. You can check in twice a day if you like because the feed keeps the trailing 12 hours.

It's dawning in Hawaii now. The show starts on camera A about 01:40 on the clock on the bottom right. Other ones about 03:10, 03:54, 04:29, 05:21, 05:41, 06:04. They are on standard time year round. The flow from the other vent on camera B is smaller. They switch around between A, B, and C from time to time as they did at 06:09:30, now camera A, depending on activity and sometimes they adjust the pan positions and the zooms. 04:29 is hot because both vents flow.

AI is both a bubble and not a bubble, as I've been writing here and putting in my DU Journal for some time.

It is not a bubble, because it is the real deal, a BFD, just like the internet was and is the real deal. I've been saying you ain't seen nothin' yet, and I stand by that. Productivity gains are undeniable where there are gains (not all AI in business has gains). The AI of 2040 and 2050 will blow your socks off, and a robot will pick them up and hand them back to you.

It IS a bubble because the market and the companies are getting ahead of their skis. AI is being over-promised just like the internet was over-promised in 2000. Bubbles form when people think markets have changed and will not decline significantly going forward. General intelligence AI is coming, but not in this iteration.

The internet required a few innovations (fibre, broadband) and lots of build out to deliver in the 2010s what was promised in 2000. So it is with AI. Nvidia is likely to survive just like Intel of 2000 survives more or less in 2025, and IBM of 1975 survives in 2025.

I think anyone who believes the market won't decline at least 50% from the coming top is in for a shock. In 2000 the NASDAQ topped over 5,000 and fell about 80% to around 1,000 by about 30 months later. It took 15 years, fifteen years, to get back to 5,000. But it has increased from there. In the last 3 years it has doubled and is now about 24,000.

How does a bubble that is not a bubble burst? When the real world intervenes. Do not lose sight of macro economics. Bull markets longer than three years (coming up) are the exception, not the rule (a bit less than two is average). Projections of unending growth are only projections.

There will be a recession. We do not know when. The seeds are already growing. A) Supply chains are disrupted (tariff taxes). B) Labour supply is disrupted (deportation fears). C) Infation is stubborn, though not terrible. D) US national debt is growing out of control due to billionaire tax cuts and none for consumers. E) Consumer wages have not kept up with cost of living, cost of housing, or productivity. F) The stock market is increasingly frothy with over-valued IPOs. G) AI implementation in business is not easy or smooth (85% of pilot projects get nixed before roll out). H) Social disruption may be coming, in the form of militarization against citizens and election disruption. I) There are other risks that don't come to mind immediately.

The situation is that for the market to continue rising steadily the way it has, everything has to go almost perfectly. The stock market over-valuation by the Shiller (Nobel laureate) CAPE index https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe , at 40.9, is above 1929 levels (31.5) and almost as high as dot-com bubble got to (44.2).

Don't bet against AI. Bet against the bubble, conserve cash, and buy the bottom because AI is the real deal. The timing and details are up to you because I do not have a crystal ball. But history rhymes even though it does not repeat.

Dunno if 4000 or 2000 is where the bottom will be, but I expect a bear more than a correction

We are in a risky phase.

Banks are not running out of money, not in the sense most people think of "running out of money". Overnight lending operations are normal, even if the quantity is unusual.

The capex investment in AI is a bubble, but it is not built on a false premise. AI is providing utility, which is evidenced by their popularity with people and by their successful deployment in specific areas like programming. AI is not bleeding the economy; capex is propping it up. Without data center and power supply construction, growth would be close to stagnant. AI is not going away, just like the internet did not go away after 2000, and radio/mass produced automobiles did not go away after 1929, and railroads did not go away after the panics 1873 and 1893. The AI of 2050 will be different from today's AI just like the internet of 2025 is different from the internet of 2000.

What is not normal is the shutdown and tariffs and Executive branch turmoil.

The markets are not "far more fragile". They are very over-valued. I do not expect a market crash, but I do expect a long steepish decline sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me if the SP500 breaks 7,000 before it hits 3,000. There might be a crash; nobody has a functioning crystal ball. Market timing is impossible, but one can recognize general risk and opportunity. We are in a risky phase.